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ENTERGY NEW ORLEANS, LLC (ENJ)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2023 consolidated results: as-reported EPS $4.64 and adjusted EPS $0.52; adjusted earnings were $111M vs $107M in Q4 2022, with notable non-GAAP adjustments from an IRS audit benefit and regulatory items .
- Entergy initiated FY 2024 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.05–$7.35 and reaffirmed 6–8% long-term adjusted EPS CAGR; utility O&M is expected to “return to normal” at ~$2.7B in 2024 .
- ENO-specific regulatory milestones: New Orleans formula rates approved in September and FRP extended for 3 years; CCNO certified Hurricane Ida restoration costs as prudent; ENO won GRIP funding ($55M federal share on a $110M resilience/microgrid project) .
- Industrial growth narrative strengthened (AWS hyperscale data centers in MS; broader pipeline across EV batteries, LNG/blue hydrogen), providing load and capital investment catalysts for the system that includes ENO .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Best forced outage rates in a decade” and system performance through record summer demand; management emphasized operational excellence and resilience investments .
- Regulatory progress for ENO: September formula rates and FRP extension provide clarity for capital recovery and credit support; CCNO deemed Ida restoration costs prudent .
- Growth pipeline: 61 new electric service agreements in 2023 (~1.3 GW, ~$250M annual adjusted gross margin potential), plus landmark AWS $10B data centers in MS reinforcing load outlook .
What Went Wrong
- Cost headwinds: higher operating expenses (depreciation, taxes other than income taxes) and higher interest expense weighed on results; diluted share count also rose YoY .
- Q3 2023 saw declines among some existing large industrial customers due to outage timing and sector-specific softness (petrochemicals, paper, ag chemicals), though new/expansion industrials remained strong .
- Estimates unavailable: Unable to retrieve Q4 2023 SPGI consensus for ENO/Entergy, limiting precision of “vs. estimates” comparisons (S&P Global access limit reached).
Financial Results
Consolidated EPS and Earnings Trend
Q4 YoY EPS Contribution by Segment (per share)
KPIs and Operating Cash Flow
Notes: Q4 2023 adjusted EPS excludes large non-GAAP adjustments, including a $568M income tax benefit from the 2016–2018 IRS audit resolution and other regulatory items recorded in Q4 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2023 was a year of successful execution… best forced outage rates in a decade, a system that withstood record summer demand” — Drew Marsh (CEO) .
- “Our 2023 adjusted EPS was $6.77 in the top half of our guidance range… we plan to invest $20 billion over the next 3 years” — Drew Marsh (CEO) .
- “Utility O&M is expected to return to more normal levels at approximately $2.7 billion [in 2024]… our goal is to deliver steady, predictable results” — Kimberly Fontan (CFO) .
- “Entergy New Orleans’ new formula rates were approved… council also approved [the] FRP for another 3 years… includes enhancements that support credit” — Drew Marsh (CEO) .
- “AWS is investing $10 billion… expected to come online over a 3-year period starting in 2025… legislation provides approval of Entergy Mississippi’s investment… recover carrying costs during construction” — Drew Marsh (CEO) .
Q&A Highlights
- Tax audit item cash impact: The large tax adjustment had “no significant cash effect” due to NOLs/tax deposits; adjustments excluded from non-GAAP earnings .
- 2024 load outlook: Increased sales expectations vs EEI preliminary plan; industrial growth strongest; some 2023 industrial ramp “recapture” of 1–2% implied .
- Capex and resilience: 2024–2026 capital increasing with resilience/renewables; resilience base near ~$1B in plan with potential acceleration subject to recovery mechanisms .
- SERI settlements: AR settlement followed clearer FERC rulings; active pursuit of similar settlements with LA/NO (timing uncertain; litigated path could be 2+ years) .
- Credit metrics: FFO/debt expected ≥14% by YE 2023, aided by debt roll-off and 2022 items rolling off; equity needs through 2024 unchanged .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street (S&P Global) Q4 2023 consensus for ENO/Entergy was unavailable during retrieval due to access limits; thus “vs. estimates” comparisons cannot be provided precisely at this time. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global when access is restored.
- Given management’s FY 2024 adjusted EPS guidance ($7.05–$7.35) and reaffirmed 6–8% CAGR, sell-side estimates may need upward adjustment for load growth, resilience approvals, and renewables execution once regulatory milestones are finalized .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- ENO regulatory footing improved: formula rates and FRP extension enhance visibility on recovery/credit; CCNO Ida cost prudence ruling reduces tail risk .
- 2024 setup constructive: utility O&M normalizing (~$2.7B) and clear adjusted EPS range ($7.05–$7.35) support steady print potential as resilience/renewables pipeline advances .
- Load catalysts: AWS hyperscale data centers and a robust industrial backlog (tech, EV batteries, hydrogen, LNG) imply multi-year rate base growth and stronger volumes benefitting ENO’s service area .
- Regulatory milestones as trading catalysts: forthcoming LPSC resilience decision (Q2), PUCT resilience plan in Texas, and potential SERI settlements in LA/NO could rerate risk and cost of capital .
- Watch cash/credit: strong OCF and targeted asset sales (gas LDC divestiture) dedicated to debt reduction support credit metrics amid capex step-up .
- Execution risks: higher interest/depreciation and inflation require continued O&M discipline; regulatory scope/pace for accelerated resilience remains affordability-sensitive .
- Tactical angle: Near-term prints should benefit from normalized O&M and industrial ramp; medium-term thesis rests on resilience approvals and renewables additions translating to rate base and EPS compounding .
Source Documents Reviewed (Q4 2023 and Trend)
- Entergy Q4 2023 earnings press release (8-K 2.02): EPS and adjustments, OCF, guidance, ENO/CCNO milestones .
- Entergy Q4 2023 earnings call transcript: strategy, load/guidance/outlook; ENO FRP/GRIP; resilience timelines .
- Entergy Q3 2023 earnings call transcript: weather lift, capex/settlements, ENO formula rates/FRP .
- Entergy Q2 2023 earnings press release (8-K 2.02): FY 2023 guidance; pipeline/regulatory progress .
Other relevant press releases specific to ENO for Q4 2023 were not found in the document catalog.